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Thursday, June 26, 2008

Videos: The media tour begins?

Gov. Palin has recently conducted three interviews with national TV networks, all within roughly 24 hours of each other. This is sharply raising the Governor's national profile, and some might think that they are watching an effort to float Palin as a VP candidate for John McCain. Hot Air's "Allahpundit" has even coined the term "Palinmania". Here's a review:

First, there was Fox Business Channel

then CNBC's "Kudlow and Company" and finally this clip on CNN. (Don't trust the title, listen to what Palin actually says.)


Bob said...

Dear Palinologists: It's very important to understand there is NO "media tour", as such.

SP's appearances are Alaska-specific, that is, she is going to the national media only to advocate for issues that are important to Alaska. The sure way to lose the Vice Presidency is for her to campaign for it.

In other words, we can push for it on her behalf, she can't.

Ted said...

Well, on CNBC-Kudlow, Palin concluded "it's time NOW for a woman on the ticket," on CNN she concluded "it must be a governor (with admin experience) on the ticket," and on Fox-news she concluded "you have to ask Senator McCain who HE wants on the ticket."

So, according to Palin, the VP (1) should be a woman (2) should be a governor and (3) should be decided and asked by McCain, not her, and that she is willing (but if McCain doesn't ask her, she doesn't have to think about it).

Gee, the only GOPer under consideration (and Palin acknowledges she IS under consideration, albeit along with others) I can think of to fit that bill is Palin herself.

Adam Brickley, aka "ElephantMan" said...


It is true that "campaigning" for the VP slot is a sure-fire way to lose the job. However, it is not unheard of for campaigns to "test-run" potential VPs by putting them out on TV to see how people react. It's also not rare to see a potential candidate raise his/her profile by doing lots of interviews.

I'm not say that either of those things is definitely going on here, but I am saying that such things MIGHT be afoot and are definitely PERCEIVED to be afoot by a lot of people.

Bob said...

Running for VP? Only SP knows for sure. Which is as it should be.

Liz Dole and K.B. Hutchinson would meet the Palin criteria, both GOP women, among others, with administrative experience in government.

What other potential VP candidate, by the way, is admitting differences with McCain and that he should "evolve" on an important issue?

The point is that SP is doing what she should be doing which is NOT be seen as pursuing the VP. The VPcy should pursue her, not the other way around.

Matthew said...

So far, she's said that it's important that a governor be on the ticket (CNN) & she's said that it's overdue for a woman to be on the Republican ticket (on CNBC's Kudlow & Co).

I can't imagine anyone she'd be talking about other than herself. I think she's campaigning.

Anonymous said...

Everyone does not seem to understand the VP process. All of a sudden, Romney, Pawlenty, Palin, Crist, Jindal, Portman, and other are making speeches at out-of-state conventions, are the media, is about a selling job for them. They all want it, all have backers who are helping them, etc.....once they find out they are on the list, they are pushing themselves.

Oh, and Edward John Craig from NRO stated he is holding out hope McCain gives her the VP nod.

JohnJ said...

Now you're getting my hopes up.

Ted said...

Significant (to me at least) marker for Palin as VP was reached today. On the John Gibson Radio Show (1st half hour) where Palin was the guest, Gibson and Palin openly jested with each other when Gibson questioned Palin about being VP and Gibson humorously said essentially "I know what you gotta say, bla bla bla that you're busy in Alaska bla bla bla," and they both kind of laughed with each other, Palin tacitly acknowledging having to go through motions of her not really showing she's looking now to being Veep -- but that was just the ritual all prospective Veeps follow. Both Gibson and Palin seemed more than comfortable in the very serious prospect that Palin could (I'll almost say would) be McCain's VP pick -- all the while Palin never seeming pushing on the subject whatsoever.

This, of course, followed a discussion where Palin very very eloquently and persuasively recounted the case for energy development in Alaska in response to excellent Gibson questioning.

Ted said...


1. The Dems/Dem supporters are aware of, openly talking about their awareness of -- now more than ever before -- McCain picking a woman.

2. The Hillary-Obama "unityfest" show has failed to placate Dem women who wanted Hillary -- they remain very very angry.

3. The Dems want to win the election more than anything else; they will do anything -- even tap Hillary at this stage as VP -- in order to win. (Don't be fooled by outward appearances, differences and frictions between Obama and Hillary.)

4. The Dems know, have spoken about, the primacy of their going first, picking a woman BEFORE McCain.

5. If the Dems did that, IT WOULD DEVASTATE (or at least substantially deflate) the positive impact of McCain picking Palin (or any woman) -- which would overwhelm even Palin's remarkable assets. The Dems know this -- and McCain tapping Palin AFTER the Dems went first on Hillary (or any woman) would make McCain's move "look" like a defensive and cynical gimmick -- and certainly the MSM would paint it that way.

6. I'm fully aware of the excitement/publicity factor in McCain waiting until right before the Dem convention to pick Palin for maximum impact to detract from Dem news. I'm also aware of arguments that picking Palin now could make her "old news" by then. However, I reject those arguments, because, Palin's story is so formidable, interesting, novel and exciting, that IT WILL LAST (ONLY GROW) thoughout the summer. People will NOT tire of the Palin phenomenon; voter interest in Palin will only grow as they get that time to know more about her -- and of course the media frenzy on Palin will be worth millions and millions of dollars of coverage, essentially free to McCain. Even if, for the sake of argument, going earlier would lose some excitement PR for McCain later, IT IS NOT WORTH THE RISK OF WAITING ONE EXTRA DAY (allowing the Dems to go first).

7. I'm aware that Palin has some important Alaska business to attend to (gas pipeline, etc.), but if measures could be taken to keep that on track, again, the risk to McCain in waiting seems to greatly outweigh that.

So, there you have it, my thinking (and fears).

Anonymous said...

the good news from all this is that we can now tell that Palin is definitely in the official running. the bad news is that it does seem pretty obvious to me that she genuinely doubts she'll get the nod. she could just be faking the doubt but i dont think so it comes across as really genuine. then again, isn't that the most prized skill for a politician?

Matthew said...

Do we have any historical instances where the timing of the selection of the Vice President had a noticeable impact on the election? Obviously, I don't mean cases where not enough vetting was done but cases in which the timing is an independent variable from the candidate actually chosen.

Btw, Anonymous, I can't speak for others, but you're right at least that I don't understand the VP selection process. If you have a better perspective (historical, insider, etc), please share.

Anonymous said...

I cannot speak for Democrats, but usually, GOP'ers test drive the VP candidates. Dole did this with McCain and others, but in the end Dole decided that he needed to energize the fiscal cons, and went with Kemp (mistake). McCain (admitted he was on the list) spent time with Dole, and gave speeches. GWB did the same thing as McCain is doing, but for whatever reason Bush went with Cheney. I am sure we will get the complete details when Cheney or Bush write books.

McCain is a very clever Pol. He knows that his VP, must be ready for cable tv and the new media. I beleive that is why the names mentioned are able to hold their own in front of the camera.

Ted said...

Matthew, normally the timing of a VP pick would not be of great consequence, but for the particular and unique circumstances surrounding the current cycle, the current candidates (including McCain's age), and, particular possible Veeps (women) under consideration -- as well as factoring the MSM has never been BLATENTLY out there so so so far for one side (and it ain't for the GOP).

BigRob-68 said...

I came across your blog and wanted to post a quick kudos. Palin would make a nice veep. I was a recent delegate to the TX GOP State Convention. Palin did quite well in some of the informal straw polls such as that by the Young Republicans. Kay Bailey Hutchinson is popular statewide though not so much among conservatives. McCain will carry Texas regardless of whom his veep will be. Energy policy will be the way that we as the GOP hold on to the seats we have in Congress and win the White House. I have watched Palin as a non-Alaskan and she is quite good on economic/energy policy. My politcal junkie intuition tells me he will pick Pawlenty, yet, keep up the good work on plugging Palin.

Ted said...

Since bigrob-68 brings up Pawlenty at the end of his comment, the following piece appearing today discussing Pawlenty vis a vis Palin is extremely instructive:

Anonymous said...

As someone who has followed this blog form quite a ways back, I just have to say it's pretty remarkable how much progress has been made.

Gov Palin hasn't even been in office for two years, and is from a state who's borders are closer to Russia and Japan than they are to Washington, DC.

Yet, she's clearly among those being considered, and really if McCain wants a woman VP is pretty much the only choice. Meg Whitman is somewhat of an outsider, but her chances are much less than Palin's.

If you look at those internot contests on CQ, MSNBC, CBS, etc... she has perfromed respectably. She came in 2nd to Huckabee at CQ, is 2nd on the CBS poll, and in MSNBC she lost to John Thune 52-48 in the 2nd round. Nonetheless, overall I think those polls show that she is an acceptable choice and wouldn't cause some mass uproar among the base or the party as certain other candidates might(Ridge, Lieberman, Bloomberg, Huckabee, etc...)

I still think the VP is likely to be either Pawlenty or Romney, but Gov Palin is certainly part of that next tier.

If you start seeing her on any Sunday shows, I think could be a big sign. Being from Alaska of ocurse, it's not exactly easy for her to show up at the studio and the time differnce makes appearing by satellite problematic as well.

There's a big Governor's Convention in Philadelphia in the middle of July. I don't know if she'll be ther but it's the major Governor's meeting for the year so there's a decent chance she will. Other heavyweights and potential VPs from both parties will be there, it's close to McCain's VA HQ, and it's close to where the press is in DC and New York, so there could be a bunch of news and events then that could shed some light.

In any event, being a woman, having a good story, checking off all the GOP/Conservative boxes, and being versed in energy issues and in an ideal position to speak on drilling and ANWR and other production issues certainly makes her an attractive candidate in a number of ways.

While she doesn't necessarily target a state or group of states like Romney or Pawlenty would, she potentially affects a wider area as women are in all 50 states and not just 1 or 2.

McCain needs to raise his numbers among white women if he wants to win. He'll do fine among white men(and if doesn't then no VP will help him and he's beyond repair), but without the white women he'll lose. Bush got 55 and 49 percent respectively among white women. Dole got 43% in 96 and Bush Sr got around 40% in 92.

Right now according to most polls, McCain is closer to the Bush Sr/Dole figures than the Bush 43 figures.

He needs to push his #s up to 50% of white women and probably a few pts ahead of 50% as Obama's increased black and youth turnout will help him.

Palin is certainly in a good spot to help in that area.

Anyway, I just wanted to congrtaulate this site as I remember it was here when this seemed like a lark to me and now it appears to me a bit more than that. If she is selected, and it's still a long shot, I think this blog will desrve the bulk of the credit.

Bob said...

>> Do we have any historical instances where the timing of the selection of the Vice President had a noticeable impact on the election?

Good point. Let’s be honest, the VP choice is rarely the difference maker.

But 2008 could the exception for the Republicans. Increasingly, John McCain is shaping up to be this year’s version of Bob Dole. Old, out-of-touch, overshadowed by someone younger and more compelling, not able to command the issues agenda. His comment the other day that he would catch up “at the end” was like when our 1996 nominee would say things like “Bill Clinton is about to learn why Bob Dole has never lost an election”.

Choosing Palin now is one way to start to turn that around. No other potential VP can both grab media attention, solidify the base, and reach out to unhappy Clintonistas and swing voters.

It’s important to remember that Sarah Palin, by herself, cannot win this election for McCain.

But it is an important step towards putting Obama on the defensive. Notice how Obama does not handle being challenged very well? Announcing Palin now is one way to start to do that.

Matthew said...

>>>Good point. Let’s be honest, the VP choice is rarely the difference maker.

I'm not sure I'd go that far. It's easy to imagine that both 2000 & 2004 would have gone the other way if one or the other candidates had had different VP choices. I just saw the second half of Meet the Press, where one analyst suggested that Romney could help McCain in the Mountain West region, where he's underperforming. I think that's basically good technical analysis, but my gut tells me that Romney would be terrible for the McCain brand as the straight-talker. Romney just feels to me like a very successful used car salesman.

I was only thinking about the timing, not the choice. And, of course, in general, good timing is important for a good campaign, because it keeps you in the headlines. But that only matters when you have a good pattern. One or two slip-ups, here or there is to be expected.

Mr. Hedge said...

Looks like Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard is a Palin fan!

Ted said...

A must see. Fox News Sunday Bill Kristol on Palin. WOW: