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Sunday, August 3, 2008

Interesting analysis from Bill Kristol

Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol has been one of the leading voices for a Palin nomination in the past few weeks, so we should definitely pay attention when he writes a column titled "How to Pick a V.P." I won't try to break his analysis down here, but it's definitely good news for our movement if his take on the McCain campaign is accurate. Here is what I thought to be the most important passage:

"Most of the campaign staff strongly prefers a selection from the first two categories — do no harm or reinforce experience. McCain himself, on the other hand, is intrigued by the bolder possibilities of youth or bipartisanship.

And he could be especially intrigued by Sarah Palin and Meg Whitman."

So, if Kristol (who has lots of connections in the McCain camp) is right, we just need to pray that Sen. McCain goes with his gut. And having watched him through the years, he goes with his gut a LOT. Personally, I think that John McCain is acutely aware of the fact that he did not get where he is by playing it safe, and that the best way for him to win this race is to be the sort of shoot-from-the-hip maverick that America first fell in love with in the 2000 campaign.

Listen to your gut, Senator, it has very rarely steered you wrong.

32 comments:

flapper said...

Palin is the ideal blend of #1 and #3, as well as the best choice for #4 if you discount liberals and those who've never held political office.

BTW, has there ever been a candidate on a major party ticket who's never held political office? I think it's ridiculous that some of these people are being mentioned. There's a difference between "out of the box" and "out of your mind".

tigrefan98 said...

Based on McCain's age, the VP pick needs to have adequate leadership experience (i.e. a Governor, not a Senator) to show they can lead.

Palin is the only woman under consideration who meets that criteria.

Anonymous said...

Whitman's only claim to fame is eBay. Obama's campaign could go wall to wall with complaints by people who got screwed on an eBay deal. Conversely, McCain can go wall to wall with Alaskans who want to keep us from getting screwed by the Democrat party refusing to let us have Alaska's oil and gas.

Paul said...

MSNBC mentions Palin as the choice for VP!

Read it here:
http://mccainpalinforprez.blogspot.com/

Ted said...

Best line from Paul's blog (above) -- and sums it up quite nicely:

"To quote a liberal discussion at my work on the forums:
'If McCain picks Palin, we're screwed'"

Anonymous said...

Paul, I actually watched the spot. Chuck Todd was talking about McCain having 40-45% of the people who will not vote for Obama and that those numbers have been steady. He talked about Obama having similar (perhaps slightly higher) levels of support.

Pat Buchanan then noted that McCain needs to go after that 10-20% and to gear his VP pick towards that group. As a result, he suggested that McCain might go for a Hail Mary kind of pick like Palin.

Chuck Todd replied in the affirmative, saying something about McCain always being a fighter pilot with a fighter pilot's mentality and that an outside the box choice-- he said a Palin or a Lieberman-- would not be so shocking. He went on to say that even a Tom Ridge probably doesn't qualify as outside the box.

That was the crux of the interview. Now, as I see it, there are two major issues with Palin: One is experience, which I think pretty much is a false complaint given how low Obama has set the bar. Two is the investigation. Bob, who has posted in other areas, is right about this.

But, here's the thing about the investigation: The 40-45% who have been supporting McCain (or been against Obama) aren't going to change because of it. The 40-45% who support Obama aren't going to change. It's the 10-20%, including a large number of over 40 year old women and blue collar Reagan Democrats, who will matter.

The women very well may see this as Hillary redux, a situation where, in Alaska, an Obama supporter is loading the deck against a woman in a so-called independent investigation. As for the blue collar Reagan Democrats, I suspect that Palin will wow them and that they will assign little if any significance to the investigation as long as her answer is a short and to the point as the one that she gave to Larry Kudlow.

Anonymous said...

Flapper said has there been a canidate who has never held political office? I think Eisenhower was elected President after WWII.

Anonymous said...

Flapper, U.S. Grant was President, never holding elected office, as well.

TC said...

George Washington never held political office before becoming Presdent. :P

Other than him, theres only ever been 2 presidents with no political experience. Grant and Eisenhower

Adam Brickley, aka "ElephantMan" said...

Flapper, the only people who have been ELECTED pres w/o prior political experience (if I recal) have been Generals (Zachary Taylor, Ulysses Grant, Dwight Eisenhower). Lincoln came close having only served one term in the U.S. House (and it was long before he ran,so he essentially ran as a private citizen).

Looks like there have been some industrialists who have bbeen tapped for VP in the 19th Century, but it's definitely be a while

Anonymous said...

What are the chances that if it isn't completed, the investigation will be viewed as completely frivolous, by Labor Day?

If it isn't, this is over because McCain could never choose someone under a serious investigation.

If McCain and the GOP are seriously considering Palin they need to get her some help in the press pronto.

Ted said...

anonymous, the 'investigation' is ALEADY frivolous (only can HELP Palin now since seen as an Obama hack operation).

BigRob-68 said...

Kristol got it right. Consultants and campaign advisors almost always play it safe. Mac's last few ads have hit Obama hard by playing up the inexperience card. So far it has taken a few weeks to see the gain of changing consultants. Contrast ads work well to get you a few points, yet, Mac will switch back with something unconventional to create buzz soon or perhaps counter an Obama counter-attack. The Palin option fits this well. If you know much about Mac's bio then you know he has spent the better part of his life being a tad rebellious, a maverick, call it whatever you like. The following that a Palin veep section will create with youthfull optimism (what the pollsters call satisfaction) is exactly what is needed. After 2006, there is a reservoir of demand for new faces without throwing out all the good GOP principle.

Anonymous said...

Palin is the only viable VP for McCain at this moment in time. Senator Mccain does not have to worry about the so called investigation that should never have been initiated by team obama, because it is only going to make people more (and not less) likeley to vote for her (the ticket). After Hilary, I can't imagine women letting another one of their very best go down in the same way. I would also argue that she is actually the safest and strongest pick for maccain if he really wants to be our president. If he want to take a gamble he can go with pawlenty (safe, but then white male - not exciting for this particular election!). This election is about change and so the GOP-ticket must reflect that change in order for mccain to prevail his last battle. Because a white male won't do, senator mccain's work is pretty much cut up! All that is left for him to do is to choose the the most appropriate time to "screw them up"!

Anonymous said...

I agree with the anonymous poster that said the investigation is not likely to hurt her among the voters McCain would hope to gain by selecting her. It would definitely be a move to shore up the female vote. And believe you me, women voters look at this investigation as ridiculous. They would all feel that Wooten should have been fired on the spot, and that Monegan is a mysoginist pig for not having done so. The people who nash their teeth over this type of thing are the people who are already in the left wing liberal voting bloc and would never crossover to vote for McCain anyway. I think the investigation is actually a win for Palin with women. You're right. It looks like female witch hunting. It looks like men trying to bring down a well-liked woman in power.
dr. v

Ted said...

Just heard Obama speech excerpt on Rush Limbaugh touting new natural gas pipeline involving USA and Canada -- sounds like Obama's trying to jump on the Sarah Palin success last week of getting the AGIA TransCanada natural gas pipeline licensed approved thru the State Legislature.

Listening to Rush, and from what I've been reading all over, Obama looking more and more as a pathetic joke of a bubble on the verge of bursting.

I know I shouldn't say this, but if things continue on the current trajectory it looks like McCain could beat Obama even without Palin -- but of course we should never chance it and we still need Palin as Veep for the new generational domination of the GOP about to emerge with her Veepship. Moreover, I do think the Palin phenomenon will have substantial coattails helping to turn Congress back towards the GOP.

Anonymous said...

In you haven't done so, CNN has a "VEEPSTAKES" poll. Palin is currently running 5th, behind Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee and Cantor. On the dem side it's Sebelius, Bayh, Kaine and Billary (in that order).

Go vote for Palin!
http://politicalmarket.cnn.com/

Scott said...

I think the more McCain gains in the polls, the more the "keep it safe" group in his campaign gains strength. I don't think Palin is more a reach than, say, Pawlenty, but that's the CW for the pol pros. But there are powerful people in the party, including the old revolutionary leader Newt Gingrich, who have voiced support for Palin.
As for the investigation, I continue to be frustrated with the Alaska GOP. The charges are weak, and they can't let the Dems and the media get away with saying she "fired" Monegan. Wasn't he replaced and offered another position? Didn't he lie about how many times he met with Palin? And what was the time line between the time he met with First Dude and his replacement?
And while I'm at it, a quick word for the former brother in law, Deputy Dumb Ass. It sucks to be you. If this investigation continues, you are about to be exposed as a illegal-moose-killing, kid-tasering, father in law-threatening, drinking-on-duty knucklehead. Heck, I'd leave the country too.

BigRob-68 said...

Scott--Ditto your comments. What is the big deal with a governor removing a cabinet-level appointee who serves at will? Good gosh, is the good 'ole boy system that sacrosanct in Alaska? Last time that I checked that is reason so many legislators, congressman, and senator are in trouble. Gimme a break. The only people who give this a second thought are partisans who do not like Palin anyway.

Anonymous said...

If Obama tries to jump on the pipeline bandwagon, that would really mean a kudos for McCain to pick Palin. That would send the message loud and clear that it was the GOP taking the leadership on that issue. I think Obama jumping into the gas/oil discussion is very much in favor of pushing Palin to the top of the heap. She gives the Mac ticket credibility on that issue that has no match in the Dem Party.
dr. v

Mongo Mere Pawn said...

Two things from Obama's energy speech today add weight to the argument in favor of the selection of Governor Palin as Senator McCain's running mate. First, anyone notice that Obama stole her campaign slogan? She ran on "New Energy for Alaska" and Obama's signage read "New Energy for America." Select Governor Palin and you not only get to highlight the differences in energy policy between the candidates, you get to demonstrate that Obama can't even come up with an original slogan.

Second, as pointed out earlier, Obama highlighted the natural gas pipeline with Canada. Not only does this constitute a tacit endorsement of Governor Palin's foreign policy experience by Obama, it allows McCain to remind voters of Obama's flip-flop on NAFTA by comparing Governor Palin's personal credibility with the Canadians with Obama having to send one of his lackeys to assure the Canadians that he really didn't mean what he was saying about NAFTA out on the hustings. Governor Palin is Alaska's "Straight Talk Express" as far as the Canadians are concerned.

Finally, both the Obama slogan and his reference to the pipeline agreement demonstrate that Governor Palin is not only on his campaign's radar screen as a potential opponent, but that she is sufficiently so to draw into question the motives of those of his supporters who initiated the investigation. It won't take much more than that to make the Obama witch hunt meme credible for Hillary supporters. His supporters cast false charges of abuse of power while he steals her accomplishment (and even her slogan) for his own ends. Sound familiar PUMAs?

Indeed, one can characterize today's speech as a tacit endorsement of Governor Palin by the Obama campaign. They liked her political style so much they stole her slogan. They liked her energy priorities so much they borrowed her policy.

Dave ll said...

I'm curious as to what EXACTLY Obama said about the pipeline w/Canada.

Did he just say it was a good idea? Did he allude to Alaska's approval of it? Is there a link somewhere to his words?

Clearly, Obama is shifting his position (again!) to get some traction with the energy issue...but it won't work. Too little, too late!

The Dems in Congress are branded with the NO-DRILL label, and rightly so...so Obama, by going and "reassessing" (he certainly does ALOT of that!) his policies about offshore drilling and now the petroleum reserve...he is pointing out the bankrupt policies of the Dems, AND giving an important tacit approval of Palin's leadership!

Wow!! Load up the ammunition he's providing for October and the VP debates!
McCain's campaign has a "loaded-for-bear" VP candidate in-waiting if they are smart enough to choose her!

Scott said...

BigRob 68--I'm also encourgaed that people like Bill Kristol are stil talking about her. You know how these pol types are about scandal (when is the last time you heard the name Larry Craig?). The fact that Kristol, who clearly knows what's going on, still has her this high on the list, may tell you the GOP -- and McCain -- don't think this is that big a deal.

Ted said...

How low can Camp Obama go vis a vis Sarah Palin! First, Obama Campaign operatives led by Alaska State Sen Hollis French dig up a frivolous 'troopergate scandal' and launch a biased 'investigation' endeavoring to bring Gov Palin down (which is already backfiring against the Dems bigtime). Next, Obama himself appropriates in his 'energy' speech -- without crediting Palin -- as being HIS issue Palin's Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline accomplishment with Canada. And finally, the Obama Campaign even appropriates the PalinforVP's McCain/Palin slogan, "New Energy for America".

(Of course, McCain can still continue to differentiate, as per his recent ad: "Don't just HOPE for new energy, VOTE for new Energy!)

Anonymous said...

Ted--Heaven forbid partisan politics getting in the way of ethics. French, sitting on the Ethics Committee, just wants to weaken the executive from his Democratic position in the Legislature. If he really cared about ethics he would be praising attempts by Palin to clean out inefficient public servants whether they are a trooper or the trooper's boss. Have a little faith in the people of Alaska to recognize a hack hit job for $100,000 versus real misdeeds.

Mongo Mere Pawn said...

If you want to see how any attack on Governor Palin's lack of experience would rebound against The One, just check out this recent interview with Governor Bill Ritter of Colorado, suggested as a possible Obama VP with just 18 months on the job:

http://michellemalkin.com/2008/08/04/oops-democrat-on-vp-shortlist-underscores-obamas-inexperience/

18 months as governor or 143 as senator? Hmmmmmm.

Anonymous said...

Sarah Palin needs the press to start shooting holes in this "investigation" right away or she has no chance. No chance

Anonymous said...

Anon--The press never helps Republicans sadly. They are in the tank for Dems; always have been, always will be.

Tyler said...

Bill Kristol's analysis just got some good mention on MSNBC's "Race for the White House" with David Gregory, who was specifically intrigued by Kristol's suggestion for a "third option." Pat Buchanan gave a rousing expression of approval for Palin. We need to find a clip of this. It was awesome. He just went on and on - uninterrupted - about how great she is. Not sure if it could be considered an endorsement (he does speak very favorably of Romney), but this just reinforces the apparent movement of seasoned conservative strategists/commentators toward Palin. I should point out, liberal talking-head Rachel Maddow offered a disgusting comment about the Governor's Monegan situation, but it received no traction. Hint: preview of the Dem's strategy, as she was clearly speaking from Democratic talking points...seriously...you have to check it out. Mountain/West-coasters take watch and maybe, at best, we can get an informal transcript of the mention. It happened in the second half of the hour. All in all, nice mention! Good air-time, thanks to Buchanan!

Dave J. said...

"George Washington never held political office before becoming Presdent. :P"

Then-Colonel Washington was a member of the Virginia House of Burgesses.

Anonymous said...

Palin could be just what the McCain campaign needs. It may be wise to wait until the last minute to announce it. For sure, the media and democratice party will point out any flaws, real or imagined, in effort to make Obama shine.

Obama is shallow, hollow, and without core values. Truly, a person who changes his mind according to the direction of political winds. Not a person of substance.

mr indy said...

It sounds to me that Rush Limbaugh picked Palin than McCain; after all it was Limbaugh that said that if Ridge was picked it would fracture the Republican party. Well it has upset this independent and more. I thought McCain would be my candidate but not after this pick. I don't agree with Obama... I do like his choice for VP but will not vote period. Can't stand this type of politics.