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Saturday, November 29, 2008

Trashing Palin is Damaging the GOP

Last evening, I read one of the most sensible posts in the last two months on R42012. The 80+ comments that followed have left me depressed. Not because of the subtle sexism and anti-Palin rhetoric, but because of the oblivious attitude many on this site have towards the current functional state of the GOP.

I am going to take the post one step further and accuse some (in the minority) elite/east-coast Republicans of unknowingly sabotaging the party and any near-future hopes of regaining control of congress or the White house.

Any of you offended? Then let me explain the reality of the situation to you.

Expect President Obama and the DNC to raise $2 billion dollars over the next four years. Expect the Obama/DNC email distribution list to reach 20 million (from the current 13 million) and their online donors list to grow from the 3 million current supporters.

Today, the Republican party is in much poorer shape than it was post-Watergate and we are on the verge of handing the Democrats a filibuster-proof Senate majority. It may take our party 8 years to match the Democrats in terms of fundraising and volunteer lists. IMO, 2006-2008 may not have been rock-bottom for Republicans and we may experience further defeat.
Many conservatives believe that the 2010 mid-term elections will be a repeat of 1994, but do not hold your breath. In the eyes of the voting public, the words, ‘Republican’, ‘corruption’ and ’DC’ are virtually indistinguishable. We are just as ill thought of as we were in 2006 and might still be just as negatively perceived in 2010, when there are even more vulnerable Republican seats up for re-election then there were in 2008.

Is there any hope for the GOP? What do we have in our arsenal to compete with this Obama/DNC machine and halt the slide in our shrinking memberships lists and volunteer organizations?

Answer: Sarah Palin.

Let us put aside the 2012 campaign for a moment and review why Sarah Palin is critical to saving the Republican party from further electoral losses.

Currently, Governor Sarah Palin is the only Republican politician who is in high demand on the talk show circuit, has galliardising support, is directly or indirectly responsible for developing massive email distribution lists, growing the online presence of conservative chat rooms, networking site and blogs and has the ability to fund-raise at the level of President Bush. Since the Nov. 4th election, most of the new conservative blogs and sites have been created on behalf of Sarah Palin or created by administrators supportive of Palin and/or her conservative positions. The online growth (blogs, youtube, conservative social networking) is Palin motivated and Palin targeted.

The three largest national pro-Palin organizations,, and the have nearly 300,000 members. All three groups have a national organization, a fundraising apparatus and have utilized their membership lists, technology and networking capabilities to work on behalf of Senator Chambliss. DraftPalin and teamsarah only developed their networks in the last 45 days. These three sites, in combination with the other pro-Palin sites/blogs and networks will easily exceed the 1 million membership mark before the end of next year.

The online Palin movement is the only conservative network to adopt identical technology and networking platforms as the successful Obama Presidential campaign. The Palin movement will be the critical factor in saving many Senators and House members in 2010, which is why liberals want Palin to become insignificant and shun from the national stage. See a transcript from a recent Limbaugh show for further explanation.

Still do not believe me about Palin, then read this from Politico.

Three weeks after the Republican ticket suffered a sweeping defeat at the polls, Sarah Palin continues to dominate search engine queries, cable news and online video sites. The only American politician who generates comparable interest is President-elect Barack Obama. No one else is close.

  • Palin was the most popular Lycos search from the week she joined the ticket continuously through last Sunday,

  • The Alaska governor now ranks fourth, just one spot below Obama, on the weekly Lycos 50 list.

  • In September, the Anchorage Daily News reported a 928 percent spike in traffic, according to Nielsen Online.

  • Her mid-October “Saturday Night Live” appearance drove the show’s highest rating in 14 years, and her Oct. 2 debate with Joe Biden was the most watched vice presidential debate ever — drawing more viewers than any of the three presidential debates between McCain and Obama.

  • She ranked as the No. 2 top news search at this week and No. 2 (after Obama) among newsmakers on the AOL 2008 year-end hottest searches list, and she occupied two slots on Politico’s list of the site’s 10 most searched terms.

  • Palin also ranked fourth among Yahoo searches
    she sat for an interview with Greta Van Susteren of Fox News and delivered the show’s largest audience of the year.

  • According to the Project for Excellence in Journalism, Palin was the second-leading newsmaker for the week of Nov. 10-16, trailing only Obama and ranking ahead of President Bush, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and McCain in the number of stories about her.

Some web sites and GOP activists/politicians have provided some excellent suggestions to improve the Republican party, election strategy and online and grassroots conservative activism, but without growing membership lists, fundraising dollars and motivated activists, the ideas will not materialize into success. Like her or not, Sarah Palin is the only net-positive national representative we have at the moment.

Next time you decide to repeat your Keith Olbermann talking points on Sarah Palin, remember which national GOP candidate is stumping across Georgia for Senator Chambliss, on the eve of the election. It is not President Bush, former President Bush or Senator John McCain, it is Governor Sarah Palin.

A wise choice, Senator Chambliss.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Happy Thanksgiving!

Well, we definitely have a lot to be thankful for this year! We've seen Sarah go national, and hopefully helped launch her as a national figure. I've been a little busy lately (home in Colorado for turkey day), so I didn't get a chance to comment on that ridiculous turkey video that hit YouTube last be honest I thought it was just one of those uncontrolable silly things that occasionally happen to public figures, and we can all get a laugh out of if. However, I figured that Thanksgiving was an appropriate time to show of the OTHER side of "Turkeygate". This is the footage of Sarah actually pardoning the turkey and wishing Alaskans a happy Thanksgiving (I personally found it heartwarming and more fun to watch than the now-infamous turkey footage). Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Monday, November 24, 2008

New Pro-Palin 527

H/T: Marc Ambinder.

Brand new Sarah Palin ad, produced by a Conservative PAC. Watch it here.

PAC spokesman Sal Russo said they have received $2 million in donations for the ads, which will start running tomorrow in Alaska and will include a national buy. “We wanted to give Sarah Palin the reassurance that despite the critics, Americans by and large appreciated her service and want her to continue to be a voice.”
He said there was some “back and forth” about whether the political ad would air on the television networks. He said it would air on cable news outlets. In Alaska, the ad is airing in primetime Wednesday.

I can hear all the potential 2012 candidates saying to themselves…”I have no chance to secure the nomination if Palin runs”.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

It's Official: We Made History!

I recieved this message from the Library of Congress in my email today (and yes, I verified that it was legitimate). We made history here, and the people who write history are acknowledging it. Pat yourselves on the back, because whatever happens from here on out, we know that people are going to remember this effort.


To Whom It May Concern:

The United States Library of Congress has selected your Web site for inclusion in its historic collections of Internet materials related to Election 2008. The Library's traditional functions, acquiring, cataloging, preserving and serving collection materials of historical importance to the Congress and to the American people to foster education and scholarship, extend to digital materials, including Web sites. We request your permission to collect your web site and add it to the Library's research collections. We also ask that we be allowed to display the archived version(s) of your web site.

The following URL has been selected:

With your permission, the Library of Congress or its agent will engage in the collection of content from your Web site at regular intervals over time. The Library will make this collection available to researchers onsite at Library facilities. The Library also wishes to make the collection available to offsite researchers by hosting the collection on the Library's public access Web site. The Library hopes that you share its vision of preserving Internet materials and permitting researchers from across the world to access them. If you agree to permit the Library to collect your Web site, please click the following link to signify your consent. This link also includes a separate consent for permitting the Library to provide offsite access to your materials through the Library's Web site.

(link removed)

For several years, the Library of Congress has collected Web sites within certain themes or topics, such as elections, for which we were required to seek permission for each new collection developed by the Library, even if permission had been granted in the past. As our collections have grown, we have had to contact some Web site producers repeatedly. To reduce this duplication and to save site owners from having to respond to multiple requests for information, we are now requesting permissions for the Library to collect, over time and in varying frequency, sites of research interest. Your site has been identified as a Web site of interest related to Election 2008. If you grant this permission, we will capture your site for inclusion in our Election 2008 Web Archive and may also include it in our future collections related to national elections. If you grant this permission, and in the future you no longer wish to be included in the Library's Web archives, please contact ! us and we will cease collection of your Web site.

Our Election Web archives are important because they contribute to the historical record of our national elections, capturing information that could otherwise be lost. With the growing role of the Web as an influential medium, records of historic events could be considered incomplete without materials that were "born digital" and never printed on paper. The Library has developed three previous Election Web Archives, in 2000, 2002 and 2004. These Election Archives are available along with our other Web Archive collections through the Library's Web site ( For more information about these and other Web Archive collections please visit our Web site.

If you have questions, comments or recommendations concerning our Election 2008 Web Archive project, please e-mail the Library's Web Capture team at (removed) at your earliest convenience.

Thank You,
Web Capture Team
Library of Congress
Washington, D.C.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Sarah Palin: Bestselling Author

by Adam Brickley

So, the word on the street today is that Sarah may have been offered up to $7 Million dollars to pen a book. Personally, I think she should take it…not for the money but for the exposure. In fact, I have suggested that writing a book would be a good step. However, I have to add one key caviat to my endorsement of the idea: if the publishers want her to just write a “memoir”, she should tell them to take a hike.
Memoirs are for has-beens…and Sarah is clearly just beginning her national career. What we need from her now is vision, not memories. Any forthcoming book by Sarah Palin needs to be forward-looking and contain commentary about the current political scene: what’s right about it, what’s wrong with it, and how we can fix it. If Sarah can use her own past accomplishments as a basis for a broader national agenda (and she can), than more power to her, but she needs to keep ideas at the center of her writing and use her biography only as proof that those ideas work. This book would need to be substantive and meaty, because it will probably be the lynchpin of any effort to dispel the Tina Fey stereotype of Palin-as-airhead.
Personally, I think she could eschew the biography end of things all together and write on policy. She’s one of the nation’s leading authorities on oil and gas policy, and one of its most dogged crusaders for ethical government. It should not be hard for her to crank out a volume on either of those subjects.
So, we can all celebrate the fact that the publishing world wants to hear from our favorite Governor, but we need to make sure that she knows what her devoted “fans” want to hear from her.
So, as the original “Palin fan” (at least here in the Lower 48), I’ll start the chorus:
SARAH, PLEASE FORGET ABOUT THE PAST AND GIVE US A VISION FOR THE FUTURE! (Besides, something tells me that, be the time this thing would go to print, the public might be hungry for some more genuine plans for “hope” and “change”)

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Are Thompson and Palin working together?

Are Thompson and Palin working together?

Ever start to put two and two together and…

I was updating my bookmarks and I was surprised to see Team Sarah was still actively advocating for Governor Palin. No mention of 2012, but their efforts were obvious. In recent weeks Team Sarah’s most vocal advocate and leader has been Jeri Thompson. You can watch some of Jeri’s performances here. As many of you are aware, Jeri is not just a political spouse, she is a political operative. Jeri worked at the RNC.

Both Thompson (Fred) and Palin have been very silent on their future roles in the GOP, but I am beginning to notice a trend. What appears to be a subtle movement(s), is actually a full-scale assault and I believe that Mrs. and Mr. Thompson and Mrs. Palin are actively working together to ascend to the leadership of the GOP.

This is of course is mostly a hunch, but we need to keep our eye on the connections and subtleties.

On Thompson, Matt Lewis from Politico (Townhall) has the story (including some speculation on Palin);

During his short-lived 2008 presidential run, Thompson often seemed a better advocate for others than for himself. After dropping out of the presidential race, he served as one of Sen. John McCain’s most eloquent, hard-hitting and effective surrogates. With his Hollywood ties, he’s also a pretty good fundraiser. As RNC chairman, he could continue in that role without the pressure to become president himself (which, frankly, didn’t seem to appeal to him).
The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder noted possibly the most intriguing pre-Election Day speculation, when he said that “some activists want Sarah Palin — assuming she doesn’t become vice president — to run.”

This week has also produced the launch of what is probably going to be the largest “Draft a Pol” movement in American history.
Paul Streitz designed a great site for the 2012 Palin movement. Paul has a ‘MASSIVE’ distribution list and networks of supporters and volunteers across the nation. Politico has the details on the ‘Draft Palin for President’ movement. Paul was a leading activist against the Bush immigration bill (frequently seen on Lou Dobbs) and Paul is the founder of This movement will soon have the resources and nationwide network similar to a national leadership campaign.

David L. Kelly, the group’s Treasurer and Colorado coordinator, sent a mass email today that hit at least one Iowa GOP vet.
“Since forming our committee last week, we now have State Organizers in ten states and thousands from across the nation who have signed on as supporters,” writes Kelly. “We feel that for Conservatives to be successful again, we must get back to the core principles of Conservatism. Sarah Palin’s popularity and her Conservative values that she embodies will be the catalyst that will resurrect the Conservative base and reform the Republican Party of the near future.”

Monday, November 17, 2008

Palin for ‘Time Person of the Year’

Former Romney supporter K-Lo, makes the argument; Read the full article.

Some highlights of the editorial, below.


But Time shouldn’t diss the not insignificant portion of the country that voted for Republican John McCain. And, specifically, they shouldn’t ignore the people who were energized by the addition of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to his ticket. She offered something new on the right, something new from a woman and something new for Republicans. Mind you, Palin was far from the first pro-life conservative woman to appear in the Republican party — there are plenty of them in the House of Representatives. (With the defeat of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina, though, there are no pro-life women in the Senate.)
Whatever you thought of her, it seemed everyone in the country had an opinion of Palin — at the very start, throughout, and after the Republicans’ failed national campaign. And like Obama, all you had to do was look at her to see that she offered something different on a national ticket. In neither case did I think that novelty alone was a sufficient qualification for executive office, but the sheer innovative force of each was blindingly obvious, and the first things you noticed.
Here at National Review’s post-election cruise, a group gathered for a weeklong post-mortem on the high seas has Palin on the brain. Palin’s not on ship, but neither her absence nor the McCain loss has dampened enthusiasm for her here.
Like the “change” from the Obama campaign slogan embraced by so many, Palin offered something different. For some it was an anti-Washington feel. Many consider her a refreshing citizen-politician in the old mold, one that Thomas Jefferson would be proud to meet. Does that make her just like Obama? I do wonder what the campaign would have been like had they both been at the helm: He wouldn’t have had a monopoly on change, and she would have had her own staff and freedom to follow her instincts, and perhaps better advice than she was given as she ran for vice president.

We’ll never know what could have been in a straight-on Obama vs. Palin contest. But what we do know is this: Palin, like Obama, energized people. And she did it in a heckuva lot less time than he had to do it, only coming onto the national scene and the GOP ticket Labor Day weekend. It’s still a free country. Media outlets still can do as they please (save for those who choose to hand over their editorial direction to one party or another). But Time would make a mistake if it ignored the Palin phenom this year just because the ticket didn’t win in the end.

Obama would be wise to agree.


K-Lo, I could not agree more.

Friday, November 14, 2008

Welcome Kristofer! (and other housekeeping notes)

Updated 5:31p.m. Meet the next Barack Obama! A new post has been added to my ConservaGlobe blog...

Obviously, we are going to have to re-tool this site for post-2008 success, and I'm happy to announce that we took the first step yesterday by adding a new blogger...Kristofer D. Lorelli. Kristofer has a been a player in the Palin movement for some time as the founder of, and is also a contributor at Race42012 (formerly

I haven't worked out how often Kristofer will be contributing yet, but his account is active and he is free to log on whenever he pleases. I will be looking for more new bloggers in the coming weeks and will let you know when a process has been set up.

I also wanted to let you know that I will also be re-starting my non-Palin blogging efforts, as there are many issues I have not commented on in the last year, and I miss blogging on international affairs. For now, I will be re-activating my old blog, ConservaGlobe, with a column to be posted tonight. I will probably be trying to totally re-do that site.

The future starts today, friends, and I'm really looking forward to it.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

The 'Real' Palin Emerges

Out from behind the scripted role of the Vice Presidential nominee, America is now being introduced to the 'real' Sarah Palin. I have never doubted the bond and friendship Senator McCain and Governor Palin developed during the 9 weeks they partnered together, but I have doubted Governor Palin's support for the agenda the McCain campaign was selling to America.

Governor Palin is not an economic populist. Her record of accomplishments include, cutting earmarks, cutting corporate welfare, balancing budgets and re-prioritizing spending. In her RGA speech this morning, the fiscally conservative Governor Palin we all respect and admire re-appeared.

"We're hearing now more talk of additional taxpayer bailouts … for companies, for corporations, perhaps even states now who may be standing in line with their hands out despite, perhaps, some poor management decisions on their part that helped tank our economy,"

"Republicans can help shore (these sectors of the economy) up without getting any more addicted to opium, other people's money," she argued. "We need to have a rational discussion. What and when is enough enough?"
I believe this is the first of many deviations we will see Governor Palin take from the 2008 campaign policy booklet.

Sarah "Knocks 'em Dead" at RGA Conference

I'm actually having a twinge on nostalgia right now. Back in the early days, we used to LIVE for Governors conferences, because we knew that they were the primary times that Sarah would be in the Lower 48 and talking to the national media. Now, she's returning to this year's Republican Governors Association Conference as the star of the show! What a difference a year makes. I think Sarah is doing a fine job establishing herself as political force in her own right, and I might even be prouder of her now than I was during the VP run. Texas Gov. Rick Perry introduced Sarah today, and he told her to "knock 'em dead"...I think that's exactly what she's been doing lately, and I'm more excited for her future than I've ever been. That's not how I expected to feel less than a month after losing an national election, but I think it's clear that Sarah is back and better than ever. I am really looking forward to moving ahead with a Palin movement that is still VERY much alive.

Also, I will be on CNN today at 2:50 PM Eastern Time for anyone interested in watching.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Medicated and Back in Action

Hey everyone. If you haven't figured it out already, I've been really sick over the last week or so (especially this weekend). Now I'm on antibiotics and trying to get back on the horse. Gov. Palin has been doing some great interviews lately, and I hope you have all seen the Greta Van Susteren interview over at While we're at this, I thought I would post video of the Anchorage Daily News' recent interview. Considering all of the criticism I've dished out about editing by the major networks, I find it really refreshing to see almost 10 minutes of raw, unedited Palin.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Endorsement: Operation Leper

I'm not even going to bother to comment on the disgusting load of hooey being spread in the media today by "anonymous McCain staffers". To address that sort of hateful garbage would be to dignify it, and I will not do that.

I will however, point you in the direction of's "Operation Leper", which was posted earlier today. While the idea sounds a little malicious, I think it is worth pursuing in this particular case. Staffers who tear down their candidate the day after the election (likely on false premises), should not have a place in the GOP. If we want to win anything in the next four years, we need to stop tearing each other down and work together. So, I don't care what you think of Sarah Palin or anyone else who might be running for President in 2012 - if your top priority TWO DAYS AFTER A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION is tearing down a leader in your own party, then I think I have good reason to question both your character and your intelligence.

So, while I normally don't like to be this petty, I think we do need to find out who these people are and get rid of them. Any self-respecting Republican should see the value in closing ranks around Governor Palin and expelling the bad apples who are spreading these viscous rumors. It is irrelevant who support for President in 2012 or what you think of Sarah Palin, if you are a Republican, you have an obligation to work toward unifying the party and providing an effective opposition the Obama administration. Right now, unifying the party means letting these rogue staffers know that we are not going to tolerate their senseless hatred of a major figure in the GOP.

Also, I wanted to post a great analysis of this situation from's Matt Lewis. (Full disclosure: Mr. Lewis is my boss, but I'm posting this because I think he said what a lot of us are thinking, not because I work for him.)

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Moving Forward


The dust has settled. Barack Obama is the President-Elect, Joe Biden is moving into the Naval Observatory, John McCain is headed back to the Senate, and Sarah is going back to Alaska...hopefully to continue the dramatic progress she has made in upsetting the political establishment and making government work for the people.

Meanwhile, those of us who supported Sarah in her run for Vice President get to begin the process of moving forward. So, as we launch a new phase in our movement, I think it's time to start talking about what we want to see in the future from the Republican Party, Sarah Palin, and our own movement. I have a few thoughts on each. Some of this is stuff I've already read, some of it isn't.


Forget about the 2012 presidential race for two years. We're never going to unseat Obama if we don't unite the party and build a solid foundation. Instead of lining up behind our respective horses for the next round of primaries, we need to focus on getting good leadership in place in Congress and the Republican National Committee (RNC). In Congress, I think this means turning the House Leadership over the the "Young Turks" of the party. More than likely, this will involve the eventual installation of a new Minority Leader from a younger generation (likely Eric Cantor of Virginia). For the time being, John Boehner has indicated his desire to remain Leader, and Cantor is probably going to run for Minority Whip. However, in the next few years, there should be moves to eventually replace Boehner with Cantor and trade the aging leadership team in for dynamic new faces like Paul Ryan (Wisconsin), Thad McCotter (Michigan), and Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Washington). They will be able to produce and market 21st Century conservative alternatives to President Obama's proposals.

At the RNC, there needs to be a new Chairman who can rev up the party faithful, rebuild the GOP fundraising machine, and help new Republicans win election. The Democrats figured out how to find such a person in 2005 when they elected Howard Dean, a charismatic former presidential candidate who could barnstorm the country. We could replicate that phenomenon by turning to Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani.


1. Don't pay much attention to 2012 speculation and focus on being Governor. Cement yourself as a presence on the national scene, but top priority is getting that gasline built (thereby giving yourself another major accomplishment as Governor and potentially lowering energy prices down here in the lower can run on that in 2012)
2. Launch "SarahPAC" as soon as possible. You are a force to be reckoned with when it comes to fundraising potential, and lots of people will be happy to give you lots of cash to distribute to candidates around the country (this also gives you an excuse to occasionally go on campaign trips). You can use SarahPAC (or whatever you decide to call it) to establish a reputation for helping other Republicans win, and gain some loyalty from the Congressmen that you want to endorse your eventual candidacy.
3. Write a bestseller. The subject is irrelevant, though including a good deal of policy talk would probably be helpful. The American public needs to know that you are an intelligent and capable leader, so show them how smart you are. Plus, it never hurts to have to do a bunch of interviews to promote your new book, and if you wrote on energy policy, you could establish yourself as a "preeminent authority" on the subject.
4. DO NOT RUN FOR THE U.S. SENATE. You need to stay far away from Washington and continue to build your resume (and ensure that you get the credit for that shiny new gasline). If you want to run for something, run for re-election.


Sarah cannot start openly tooting her 2012 horn for at least two years, and frankly neither can any other high level GOP operative or major media personality. On the other hand, we "internet nuts" are bound by no such standards of propriety. Our job moving forward is to wave pom-poms and yell "Sa-rah! Sa-rah!" at the top of our lungs for the next few years. We're the ones who will be making sure that Sarah's accomplishments in Alaska continue to be highlighted (need I mention the gasline again?) and that she stays at the top of any and all lists of potential 2012 candidates. This is what we do best, and we need to get back to that sort of operation.

We also need to pursue two objectives from an operational standpoint: institutionalization and decentralization. Institutionalization means putting in place mechanisms to ensure that the Palin Movement remains intact and cannot be broken up. Decentralization means making sure that there are multiple sources of pro-Palin chatter. We've already done well at decentralizing, with a plethora of Palin sites popping up earlier this year (,,, etc.), but we need to continue to build stronger networks and more sites. This will ensure that we cannot be shut down by the departure of one or two bloggers. I'll be honest here, I have no clue what I will be doing in four years or whether my career path will allow me to continue an independent partisan blog. We need to make sure that NO ONE can kill this movement or this site, not even me. Hence, I will be looking to build a stronger network of Pro-Palin blogs and re-networking with some of the connections that I have not been able to keep up during the recent frenzy. I will probably also be looking to add new bloggers the team here at

If we take these steps, we should be able to set up a sustainable movement that, God willing, will help propel Sarah to the Presidency in four years.

God bless America.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Draft Sarah 2012

Well, looks like it's over. McCain just gave a very gracious concession speech, and we should congratulate him and Sarah on a great campaign. We give our best wishes to President-elect Obama, but at the same time we officially inagurate the "Draft Sarah 2012" movement. As far as we are concerned, victory is still in sight and there will be no settling for second banana next time.

You've all done a wonderful job and I like to thank all of you for reading and commenting during the past year. For as much as I have received much credit for this movement, it would have gone nowhere without you, my readers. I look forward to continuing to work with you.

Our prayers are with Governor Palin, and God Bless America.

Election Night Liveblog

7:07 PM - It's 7:00 PM on the East Coast and the first polls have closed. As the first results trickle in, feel free to get the party going in the comments section. I'll be back as soon as there is anything to report. Welcome aboard, and let's make it a great night!

8:25 PM - Well, the early results are rolling in. The only thing I have to say is to remember that these are EARLY results. We won't really know what's going on in a lot of these states until more numbers roll in.

8:33 - While I'm thinking about it, special thanks to my friend Carly for the use of her laptop. Carly, I'm sure you'll see this at some point in the night, so rest assured that I will not post your last name all over the web :-).

9:04 - The networks are calling battleground states with less than 5% of the vote in...even Fox...amazing. Anyway, we're winning in VA and closing in FL and NC. Meanwhile, Carly informs me that, in return for using her laptop, I now have an obligation to drop her name in all media interviews.

9:20 - I continue to be amazed at the media's absurd confidence in their ability to predict the future. Pennsylvania has been called with 13% in (a heavy Obama lead...indicating a likely win in Philly) and Ohio with 9% (Oh boy...Obama won Cleaveland!).

10:23 - Things are starting to look bluer, but I'm still not buying some of the early calls. Either way, I'm settling in with some card games and preparing for the real excitement.

11:01 PM - CNN has called the election for Obama. Thoughts? Assuming the result holds, we still have a lot to talk about here. Sarah 2012?

Monday, November 3, 2008

Brace for Impact!

Nobody knows what's going to happen tomorrow, and frankly I don't feel like wasting your time with pontifications or predictions. Here's what I will say: We will be having an "online victory party" here just like we did the night before the nomination.

I will be liveblogging all night long (though I will be at a party, so we're going to have to see how often I get to the computer). I'm also operating under the assumption that it will be a LONG night. McCain is on fire, Palin is on fire, and the best poll from 2004 shows the race as a tossup.

So, get out to your local polling stations and lets make sure that John and Sarah can raise their hands in victory tomorrow night. Then, we'll get online here to celebrate.

One last thing...I kicked off the last victory party by posting a Bon Jovi music video, so I figure I'll get this one started with another one...

Consider this my response to anyone who thinks this election is lost.

(and if any of you are artistically inclined, I would love it if somebody could photoshop Sarah's hairdo onto the "Have a Nice Day" smiley face from the video...I would love to make that our theme image going forward.)

Sunday, November 2, 2008

A Few Thoughts on Polls (and a CNN Video)

Friends, we are just under 48 hours from the opening of the polls in what could be one of the biggest elections of our lifetime...and personally I'm starting to think it is going to be a real squeaker regardless of who wins.

If you haven't noticed, most of the polls are showing Obama up by roughly 5%, but what a lot of people don't look at is the fine print on how those polls are conducted. A lot of pollsters build party registration breakdowns into their polls to ensure they have a sample that accurately reflects the electorate. Here's the problem: This year, the pollsters have been consistently building more Democrats into their polls. Through my job at Townhall, I had the opportunity to listen in on a McCain campaign media call the other day, and they had to explain that a lot of these polls are building in a 10-12% Democratic registration advantage (assuming a surge of new Democratic voters due to Obama). However, since 1984, that simply is not the case. Instead, there has been a pretty steady Democratic registration advantage of about 5% (even in elections where the GOP wins handily). If we were building polls based on that assumption, we would be looking at MUCH different data than the stuff we are getting.

So, the question then becomes what data the CAMPAIGNS are operating on. Obama wants us to think he's playing in red states now...and to a degree he is (North Carolina). However, that doesn't explain why the Senator from Illinois was in Iowa on Friday. Iowa has been polling blue for months, it's not in need of defending, right? Wrong. McCain internal polling shows it tied, and I'm guessing Obama's polls are showing the exact same thing (otherwise he wouldn't be there).

So, I'm bracing for a long night on Tuesday.

P.S. Here's the video from the CNN International segment I did the other day with Zennie Abraham. I can't get the embed to work, but Zennie also has a great piece on this up on his blog, so you can view it there. And he's right..they cut some good stuff out of the final version.