Friends, we are just under 48 hours from the opening of the polls in what could be one of the biggest elections of our lifetime...and personally I'm starting to think it is going to be a real squeaker regardless of who wins.
If you haven't noticed, most of the polls are showing Obama up by roughly 5%, but what a lot of people don't look at is the fine print on how those polls are conducted. A lot of pollsters build party registration breakdowns into their polls to ensure they have a sample that accurately reflects the electorate. Here's the problem: This year, the pollsters have been consistently building more Democrats into their polls. Through my job at Townhall, I had the opportunity to listen in on a McCain campaign media call the other day, and they had to explain that a lot of these polls are building in a 10-12% Democratic registration advantage (assuming a surge of new Democratic voters due to Obama). However, since 1984, that simply is not the case. Instead, there has been a pretty steady Democratic registration advantage of about 5% (even in elections where the GOP wins handily). If we were building polls based on that assumption, we would be looking at MUCH different data than the stuff we are getting.
So, the question then becomes what data the CAMPAIGNS are operating on. Obama wants us to think he's playing in red states now...and to a degree he is (North Carolina). However, that doesn't explain why the Senator from Illinois was in Iowa on Friday. Iowa has been polling blue for months, it's not in need of defending, right? Wrong. McCain internal polling shows it tied, and I'm guessing Obama's polls are showing the exact same thing (otherwise he wouldn't be there).
So, I'm bracing for a long night on Tuesday.
P.S. Here's the video from the CNN International segment I did the other day with Zennie Abraham. I can't get the embed to work, but Zennie also has a great piece on this up on his blog, so you can view it there. And he's right..they cut some good stuff out of the final version.